Come Belmont Stakes race day, the chips of any Triple Crown season have not quite all fallen, but most have, and with today’s field as densely shot through with talent as it is — both known and unknown, it must be said — fates will be decided. Even at a Derby length of a mile-and-a-quarter as today’s very unusual 156th running at Saratoga will be, the Belmont will be a decider. Call it what you will, a bookend, a great shunt, a fork in the road, the Belmont traditionally moves its contenders onto different paths, some to shorter careers directed toward the stud barns, others remaining on the tracks as they move through Saratoga’s own Travers Stakes to the Breeders’ Cup landscape and beyond. The Belmont’s prospective post time is 6:41 p.m. ET/11:41 p.m. British Summer Time.
Thus the careers of the Belmont’s four top favorites are put into play today. Of the four, Derby winner Mystik Dan and underdog Seize the Grey clearly have their work cut out for them. The remarkable thing about Seize the Grey’ Preakness win is that he didn’t just lollygag around and happen to appear at the finish line to mop up because no other athlete could manage the run — he actually got out there and won his Preakness. By contrast, Mystik Dan had more than a bit of good fortune come his way in the Derby.
Did we mention that Mystik Dan’s connections have had some fine “tour jackets” run up to beat back the Adirondacks’ morning-workout chill up at Saratoga? Pictured below, out in force on June 7 in the morning fog, as their champion works his way through his paces. Loving that Major-League-Baseball-meets-the-Bon-Jovi-tour level of spirit on the Mystik Dan team.
But before we dive into what these gentlemen runners have to do to get up and out and through Sierra Leone and Mind , here’s the refresher on the field and the track’s odds.
(Post Position, Morning Line Odds)
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1. Seize the Grey, (8-1)
2. Resilience, (10-1)
3. Mystik Dan, (5-1)
4. The Wine Steward, (15-1)
5. Antiquarian, (12-1)
6. Dornoch, (15-1)
7. Protective, (20-1)
8. Honor Marie, (12-1)
9. Sierra Leone, (9-5)
10. Mindframe, (7/2)
(Source: NYRA, June 7, 2024)
But before any of those big-career-picture questions can be settled for any of today’s ten athletes, everybody in the race today must confront the race’s first and most pressing question, namely, who the heck is Mindframe and what’s he gonna do? Not even his trainer, Todd Pletcher, knows the answer to that, although the talented Texas-born horsesman probably has a better idea than anybody else.
In Mindframe’s microscopically short two-race career, the athlete has left some speedy hints along the way. He walks to the track at post time today with the highest Beyer figure — 103 — of any of his more experienced competitors. So, we know he likes to run fast, and he (probably) has a fair idea of the general architecture of a race, if not, exactly, a specific, tactical one. Put another way, he does seem to know and to live by the maxim that, when on a track competing with other horses, it’s a really good idea to beat everybody in sight. The corollary to that is, we could fairly say that his tactical awareness in the teeth of a race approaches zero even as his speed figures top north of a hundred.
Which is why, in a race that is likely to be highly tactical as this field promises this Belmont Stakes to be, Pletcher has Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, arguably one of international flat racing’s top four tacticians, another of whom is Ortiz’ brother. Young horses, especially young Thoroughbreds who have not raced much, can’t be told to “unthink” what they think they should do in competition. They can be ridden, of course, and given certain sorts of tack to help them focus on the task of addressing a level of tactical need with a tactical performance. But, as the best trainers know, they can’t really be changed. What they can be is polished and prepared to be the best versions of themselves.
In order to ensure, or at least to help, Mindframe present the best version of himself this afternoon, the crucial task that Pletcher and Irad Ortiz will set themselves up the backstretch and into the far turn is simply to “gauge” — and to pace, to the extent possible — the aggressive, front-running colt’s fuel expenditure, in an attempt not to have him empty the tank too early. His fading in the last furlong — if in fact he fades — will be a very special danger in this race because Sierra Leone is just a deadly closer.
Facing that specific danger, part of Mindframe’s vulnerability is that, unlike every other competitor in the race, he has never run a mile-and-a-quarter. He simply doesn’t know how to think about it. Tapit is a paternal grandfather of his, so the feeling is that he has the distance in him.
But he has run exactly once at 7 furlongs, and exactly once at a mile-and-a-sixteenth. Incredibly — for the second-favorite in the Belmont — that is the sum of his experience.
It is in dealing with the distance that his lack of experience and lack of maturity will enter the debate. Irad Ortiz’ daunting job this afternoon will be to help Mindframe make that inexperience not matter. Since the horse is so very new to this, he has a task unlike that of his competitors. He will understand the general shape of some things, such as the fact of a race. He will not understand the class or the depth of his competition, nor will he have any idea of the distance. He will want, ferociously, to compete.
Thus: A large percentage of what happens out on the track to and around Mindframe will have to be understood by him in the moment that it happens. Put another way, what happens out there must be understood by him, and in a very real way, he must remain able to move through it. He dare not, in the face of this competition, let the work of his understanding affect his run. Beyond his trainer Pletcher and his jockey Ortiz, the NYRA oddsmakers think that Mindframe can accomplish that.
